CONTACT US

Samsung & SK Hynix Suffer Record-Breaking Plunge: 5 Reasons Behind the Chip Sell-Off and What DRAM ETF Investors Should Do

7월 29, 2026 8 min read

On July 28, 2026, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix — which together account for roughly 60% of the KOSPI’s market capitalization when preferred shares and SK Square are included — closed down approximately -13% and -14%, respectively, among the steepest single-day declines in either stock’s history. The KOSPI itself plunged as much as 10% intraday, triggering a market-wide sidecar (circuit breaker) before settling near the 6,300 level. Here’s a fact-based look at the five drivers behind the sell-off, followed by a practical playbook for investors holding DRAM-focused ETFs.

(Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. The “Takeaway” section near the end reflects the author’s personal opinion, clearly labeled as such.)

What Happened

  • Monday, July 27 (U.S. time): Chinese memory chipmaker ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) debuted on Shanghai’s STAR Market, surging +466% on day one and closing with a market cap of roughly $487 billion — Asia’s largest semiconductor IPO of 2026, having raised about $8.6 billion.
  • The same day, U.S. memory and chip names sold off sharply: Micron (MU) fell about 5%, SanDisk (SNDK) dropped 11–12%, Western Digital (WDC) fell 7%, ASML lost more than 8%, Nvidia (NVDA) fell around 5%, AMD dropped 8%, and Intel (INTC) fell 4–5%.
  • Tuesday, July 28 (Korea time): The sell-off spread to Asia. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix extended losses to roughly -13% and -14% by the close, with foreign investors net-selling about 4.8 trillion won ($3.5B+) on the Korean bourse.

5 Key Reasons Behind the Sell-Off

1. CXMT’s blockbuster IPO reignites fears over the “Big 3” memory oligopoly

CXMT is now the world’s fourth-largest DRAM producer, trailing only SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron. Its explosive debut — backed by China’s state-run National IC Fund — instantly pushed its valuation close to $500 billion, fueling fears of a wave of new Chinese memory supply. Importantly, CXMT still lacks access to ASML’s extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems, meaning it cannot yet produce the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips used in AI servers. Still, reports that Apple has been testing CXMT chips as a potential low-cost DRAM supplier for iPhones stoked concerns about commodity-DRAM market share erosion.

2. KOSPI concentration risk amplified the sell-off

Samsung Electronics, Samsung Electronics preferred shares, SK Hynix, and SK Square together represent nearly 60% of KOSPI’s total market cap. In a market this concentrated, weakness in the mega-cap chip names drags the entire index lower, which in turn triggers index-tracking and passive outflows — a feedback loop that can amplify single-stock declines well beyond what fundamentals alone would suggest. Heavy foreign and institutional net-selling on July 28 was concentrated almost entirely in KOSPI’s electronics sector.

3. A broader U.S. semiconductor and AI-chip bear market

U.S. chip stocks were already under pressure before CXMT’s debut: the sector had fallen more than 20% from its June 2026 record high, putting it in bear-market territory amid growing investor scrutiny of hyperscalers’ enormous AI capital spending. The CXMT news added fresh fuel, hitting Nvidia, Micron, AMD, Intel, and the broader Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX).

4. China’s homegrown DUV lithography breakthrough threatens ASML’s near-monopoly

According to a report from The Information, a Chinese state-backed company has begun mass-producing immersion deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography equipment, with plans to scale from five units this year to twenty next year. While still early-stage, the news rattled ASML — which holds a near-monopoly on advanced lithography tools — sending its shares down more than 8% and further chilling sentiment across the entire chip equipment and manufacturing supply chain.

5. Renewed “circular AI investment” and hyperscaler capex anxiety

Reports that Nvidia could invest up to $250 billion in OpenAI’s massive data center buildout reignited concerns about circular financing arrangements — where AI companies invest in and generate revenue from one another, potentially inflating the appearance of real end-demand. Combined with lingering questions over whether Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon’s record AI capex will translate into commensurate returns, this macro overhang added to profit-taking pressure across the entire semiconductor complex.

How DRAM-Focused ETFs Reacted

The Roundhill Memory ETF (CBOE: DRAM), the only pure-play memory-chip ETF on U.S. exchanges, has fallen roughly 40% from its June 22 peak of 80.72 to a recent intraday low of 48.64. Over the same window, the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) fell about 24%, the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) fell about 20%, and the leveraged Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares (SOXL) dropped 61%. Despite the drawdown, roughly $25 billion has flowed into semiconductor ETFs overall — a sign that dip-buying demand remains substantial.

Wall Street’s read is mixed. Morgan Stanley called the pullback a “compelling entry point,” citing intensifying data-center memory shortages, with prices up more than 25% in Q3 alone. KeyBanc maintains a $1,750 price target on Micron, projecting DRAM pricing to rise 15–20% quarter-over-quarter through Q4. HSBC maintains a Buy rating on both Samsung and SK Hynix, expressing a preference for SK Hynix given its roughly 50–55% share of the HBM market heading into the HBM4 cycle.

A Playbook for DRAM ETF Investors

  1. Separate commodity DRAM from HBM. CXMT still cannot access EUV lithography and therefore cannot produce AI-grade HBM. The HBM market remains a tight oligopoly of SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron. This sell-off does not yet represent a direct threat to the high-margin AI memory business that underpins most DRAM-ETF holdings.
  2. Consider dollar-cost averaging (DCA). DRAM has been an extremely volatile fund since its April 2026 launch, already down about 40% from its peak. Scaling into a position over time, rather than deploying capital in a lump sum, can reduce timing risk in a market this choppy.
  3. Watch the earnings calendar closely. SK Hynix reports Q2 earnings on July 29, followed by Samsung on July 30 and the Fed’s FOMC decision the same day, with Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple earnings soon after. These reports will go a long way toward showing whether this is sentiment-driven overselling or an actual fundamental deterioration.
  4. Think about diversification. DRAM’s top three holdings make up roughly 73% of the fund, making it far more concentrated than SMH or SOXX. Investors with high conviction in the memory cycle may stick with DRAM; those seeking lower volatility could pair it with a broader semiconductor ETF like SMH or SOXX.
  5. Track CXMT’s actual capacity ramp and EUV access. Much of the current reaction appears to be pricing in future risk rather than present-day competition. The real inflection point will be whether CXMT secures EUV access (directly or via domestic DUV substitutes) and whether China’s homegrown lithography tools actually reach volume production.
  6. Treat circular AI-investment and hyperscaler capex risk as a separate macro issue. The Nvidia–OpenAI financing debate is a different risk factor from memory-chip supply and demand fundamentals — don’t let headline anxiety on one topic distort your read on the other.

Takeaway (Personal Opinion)

The following reflects the author’s own interpretation, not verified fact.

This sell-off looks more like a liquidity-driven panic — amplified by KOSPI’s extreme concentration and forced deleveraging of margin positions — than a fundamental repricing of Samsung and SK Hynix’s AI memory franchise. CXMT is a legitimate long-term competitive threat, but its lack of EUV access means it’s unlikely to meaningfully disrupt the AI-grade HBM market in the near term, so reading this drop as proof that the HBM premium is broken may be premature. That said, the deeper question of whether hyperscaler AI capex can keep expanding at its current pace — separate from the memory story entirely — is a risk worth continuing to monitor. This week’s SK Hynix and Samsung earnings and forward guidance will likely be the key test of whether this turns out to be a sharp but temporary correction or the start of a genuine trend change. This is not investment advice; any decisions and their outcomes are the investor’s own responsibility.

Sources

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock or ETF. All investment decisions and their consequences are the sole responsibility of the reader. Please verify against the latest official filings and consult a licensed financial advisor before investing.

답글 남기기

이메일 주소는 공개되지 않습니다. 필수 필드는 *로 표시됩니다

Recent Comments

보여줄 댓글이 없습니다.

Archives

© 2026 Welding for Elementor. All rights reserved.

광고 차단 알림

광고 클릭 제한을 초과하여 광고가 차단되었습니다.

단시간에 반복적인 광고 클릭은 시스템에 의해 감지되며, IP가 수집되어 사이트 관리자가 확인 가능합니다.